Using PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS, individuals in a health plan that are predicted to reach certain milestones or outcomes (for example, $10,000 in the next 12 months (or even shorter period of time), to be hospitalized, or re-hospitalized) are identified. Along with the prediction is its “validation” of accuracy (based on historical data)—predictions, their validation, and a registry of individuals with specific probabilities are re-processed every time data is refreshed in the Trajectory Solution. Predictive model creation and validation is possible with 2-3 years of historical data from which automated (and patented) processes are deployed for model building and validation. The more data that is available, the more accurate the prediction; the Trajectory Solution is fully configurable to enable the addition of more data sources over time (e.g. via Health Risk Assessments, demographics, etc.).
The RETRO ANALYTICS module produces both standard business intelligence reports and ad hoc reports to create patient registries, to quickly analyze utilization, diagnoses (and co-morbitities), costs (including high cost claimants) over time; comparing groups, providers, people, defined populations, procedures, all in a highly interactive platform. The Trajectory ad hoc reporting service gives the user the ability to rapidly drill down to understand characteristics of “thousands” of predefined populations (with options to “create” new population for analysis), diagnosis, procedure, place of service, providers, Rx (if available), Lab (if available). The reporting service is configurable, and if an ad hoc report is being created frequently, it can be developed as a standard report.
Using EVENT ANALYTICS, the trajectory of a population with an “event” (for example, the onset of diabetes, the evidence of a fracture, the occurrence of a cardiac catheterization, or the start of a case management program) is generated prior to the event and after the event at the person level providing detailed cause-effect analysis for the occurrence of the event for the population. Event Analytics provides critical information for the development of intervention programs that enable targeted resource allocation, dramatically improve patient outcomes and reduce costs.
Using PROGRAM EVALUATION, the trajectory of a population with an “event” (for example, the onset of diabetes, the evidence of a fracture, the occurrence of a cardiac catheterization, or the start of a case management program) is compared to a population or set without the “event”, or with another event thus providing a comparative effectiveness analysis. Program Evaluation clearly identifies the impact of intervention programs and provides performance metrics upon which true return on investment (ROI) estimates can be generated.